October 7, 2012
By Kim Roberson
Kim Roberson
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When you play the lottery, you usually have a pretty good idea that you are more than likely donating your dollar or two to whatever state education board that receives the proceeds from your local effort than actually donating a few bucks towards your future life of luxury.
The odds are pretty high that you will be doing a lot more of the former and not doing any of the latter.
When you go to Talladega and in the NASCAR Chase, the odds of a driver winning the lottery are 1 in 43, and the likelihood of one person winning over another are about the same as you or I winning the Powerball. Or at least it seems that way.
When drivers and fans head to Alabama, they go expecting the worst: a crash takes out half the field; a non-Chase driver takes out a Chase driver and ruins their chances for winning the Championship. Some fans can’t stand to watch the race because the chances of a major incident are so high -- some fans love to watch for the exact same reason.
When you come to Talladega in the spring, it seems it is the time for lesser known teams to try and make their name in the sport: just look at Brad Keselowski and Phoenix Racing a few years back. But in the fall, it is the guys in the back of the Chase pack who take all of the risks, because the rewards could mean going from kissing their title hopes goodbye to a real chance to win it all.
“Everybody has different agendas,” notes Jeff Gordon, driver of the No. 24 AARP Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet.
“You’ve got guys that are outside the Chase that say it’s all pretty much about wins here. You’ve got some guys that don’t like restrictor-plate racing and say I just want to survive. You’ve got guys in the top-five in points that just want to come out of here with a top-10. Then you’ve got guys like myself, that are in the Chase but further back and say what do we have to lose?
"We’ve got to come out of here with a strong finish or our season is done. So, to me I’d rather be in this position and not be over thinking it and just in there to win and be aggressive.”
Gordon’s teammate, Dale Earnhardt Jr., driver of the No. 88 Diet Mountain Dew Chevrolet, agrees. “We’re in a position where it really doesn’t matter. We can’t be conservative at all. We’ve really got to take a lot of risks. With just a few races left and as good as everybody is running, like Brad (Keselowski) and Jimmie (Johnson) and the No. 11 (Denny Hamlin), we really have to get pretty aggressive and that should play right into this race track’s hands. It’s a place that really kind of asks for that and you’ve got to really take some risks and be pretty daring out there to make some things happen.”
For Keselowski, driver of the No. 2 Miller Light Dodge and reigning champ at ‘Dega in the spring race, his plan is simple: "I don't know why you wouldn't want to be leading. I don't understand that theory at all. If you have a chance to be in the lead, take it and run."
Keselowski has proven that he can conquer the restrictor plate tracks, something very few drivers can say convincingly or with wins to back it up. “The thing that makes Talladega and Daytona special to me is that to win, you almost always made the right moves to win and you’ve earned it -- People want to say, ‘It’s a plate race and anybody can win.’ Really, that’s not how it works.”
I have to agree with Brad. Racing at restrictor plate tracks is not as simple as climbing in a car and driving fast.
It is a thinking person’s race -- I would almost hazard to say that someone with ADD would excel at racing a plate track because you have to have so many different things going around in your head at once. You can’t just focus on going straight ahead or one what is going on directly around you. You have to look forward and back, side to side, to the front of the pack and the back, all while deciding how you are going to keep your car from losing control at 200 mph.
I know for us fans, watching at home or from the stands, it can be nerve wracking. I know I am usually on the edge of my seat when the cars are going four -- even five-wide in the corners, just inches apart, waiting for something to happen.
We’ve been blessed in recent years that we haven’t had a driver end up on his roof and on fire at some point during the race, but we all know it is a possibility.
Here’s hoping the lottery pays big dividends for some driver who was able to juggle his thoughts, his car, and his luck just well enough to come out first at the checkers. And that the Chase drivers don’t find themselves any worse for the wear as we leave Alabama and head out for the second half of the chase, and the road to the Sprint Cup.
Follow Kim on Twitter: @ksrgatorfn
The thoughts and ideas expressed by this writer or any other writer on Insider Racing News, are not necessarily the views of the staff and/or management of IRN.
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